7.PR.6Simple Event Probability Models

Expectations

• 7.PR.6.1

  Represent the probability of a chance event as a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Describe that a probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around $\frac{1}{2}$ indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

• 7.PR.6.2

  Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on an event and observing its long-run relative frequency will approach the theoretical probability.

• 7.PR.6.3

  Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of simple events. Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

• 7.PR.6.4

  Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes and use the model to determine probabilities of events.

• 7.PR.6.5

  Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

• 7.PR.6.6

  Use appropriate graphical displays and numerical summaries from data distributions with categorical or quantitative (numerical) variables as probability models to draw informal inferences about two samples or populations.

Georgia Milestones coverage

• Mathematics Grade 7 (EOG) · Probability Reasoning

  Using mathematical reasoning, investigate chance processes and develop, evaluate, and use probability models to find probabilities of simple events presented in authentic situations.

  about 16% of the test · 9 points

What mastery looks like

Georgia's Achievement Level Descriptors. The levels are cumulative: each includes the ones before it. Proficient is on grade level.

Beginning

Recognize an event as likely, unlikely, or neither likely nor unlikely.

Developing

Determine the probability of an event based on the likelihood of the event. Determine the probability of a chance event by using the data collected from trials of the event. Use a uniform probability model to predict the outcome of an experiment. Use a probability model to predict an outcome. Compare data from two data displays and numerical summaries.

Proficient

Calculate the theoretical probability of a chance event. Compare the experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. Describe a uniform probability model that represents a realistic problem. Describe a probability model that represents a realistic problem. Use measures of central tendency and/or variability to compare data from two data displays.

Distinguished

Describe situations modeled by probabilities, including making predictions based on experimental and theoretical probabilities and developing probability models.